The Rapidly Increasing Cost of Knowledge Itself, with ChatGPT

The world as we know it has changed... we just don't know it yet

Introduction

ChatGPT has changed the world forever by making knowledge a tradeable commodity, the cost of which is rising, while simultaneously revolutionizing and  likely leading to the collapsing in cost of software development over time

Knowledge: prices soaring,

Let's start with this: Last Week - Google.com was Free. 

Despite still being free Yesterday, I paid $4.96 for the privilege of being able to ask ChatGPT, OpenAI's astonishing  new Chatbot (chat.openai.com/chat) ~913 questions.  

Those same questions, same answers, i.e. the same "Knowledge", will cost me ~$6 today

What will it cost Tomorrow?  I suspect that literally not even OpenAI knows.

I'm sorry, but that is just BONKERS.

Software: costs likely to collapse

At the same time that the cost of accessing knowledge is clearly on the rise, the impact of AI technologies like ChatGPT on software development is likely to be a staggering reduction in cost over the coming months/years.

With the ability to automate research and design processes, as well as assist in implementation, projects that previously required multiple full-time employees can now be completed with fewer resources and in less time.

This article explores the implications of both the benefits, as this will likely lead to significant cost savings for businesses and organizations, as well as increased efficiency and productivity, it is also a huge shift to have to pay real dollars for the best knowledge of the day.

What is ChatGPT?

ChatGPT is a chatbot developed by OpenAI, a leading research institute in the field of artificial intelligence. It is a large language model trained using deep learning techniques, which allows it to generate human-like responses to natural language inputs. ChatGPT is able to answer a wide range of questions, providing accurate and detailed answers in real time.

The emergence of ChatGPT last week is significant because it is an example of a rapidly advancing AI technology that is changing the way knowledge is accessed and valued.

While slower versions of ChatGPT are available for free, the rapid increase in the cost of using the paid tier of ChatGPT to access knowledge is indicative of the broader trend of rising prices in the AI industry, and also seems like it has the potential to create huge economic and social inequalities move forward.

Potentially Alarming Implications

ChatGPT has followed this trajectory since Nov 30th; we are literally watching the price of knowledge rise from day-to-day, in real world dollars!

Date Range	Price	Response Time	Responsiveness
Dec 1st - Dec 4th	$0.0000	1 second	Free! Works great.
Dec 5th - Dec 6th	$0.0050	5-10 seconds	Free Slow. Paid Okay.
Dec 7th - Dec 8th	$0.0055	10-30 seconds	Even Paid Slow.
Dec 9th - Dec 9th	$0.0066	30-45 seconds	Paid Really Slow.
Dec 10th...	$0.00??	60-75+ seconds	~1 request per min

In just a few days, the cost of accessing knowledge through ChatGPT has increased significantly.

2 days ago, the cost per question was roughly $0.004, but yesterday it had risen to $0.0054, and today it is more than $0.0066.

This obviously represents a significant increase over the previous cost of accessing knowledge through traditional search engines like Google, which was essentially free.

The Rapidly Changing Economic Landscape of AI

The Price of Knowledge in an AI World

This AI technology is quickly going to end up pricing folks that can't afford to pay for this knowledge out of the market.

Google was basically free.

Now suddenly from one day to the next, the price for knowledge literally has a tangible, real-world price.  And that price is currently still going up every day. I would not be shocked if this price were to even go as high as $0.05 per question in the short term.  At least that's my guess today. 

This guess is mainly based on the fact that I would happily pay that, with even a basic understanding of what this fucking thing is capable of ... having spent most of every waking minute talking to it - since learning of it's existence from my friend Edgar, at 2:44PM CST, Dec 3rd, 2022.  

Will AI Replace Developers?

One of the best quotes I've heard about AI to date is, was in a YouTube video from Anestasi in Tech:

AI isn't going to replace Developers.  

Developers who use AI are going to replace Developers who don't.

So to make that happen, "using AI", at even $.01 or $0.10/question will potentially cost $5-10 (or more) per day, per employee, just to acquire "the knowledge" that they will need in order to move at this new velocity.  

In addition to the new Velocity of Change that this AI allows for, and all of the changes to everything else in the world that are about to cascade from that change in velocity, there is also now potentially a completely new:

~$1-3K: "Knowledge Acquisition Cost", Per Employee, Per Year - just to keep up with the Joneses.

Adapting to the Challenges of AI Knowledge

It seems as though it is essentially an entirely different economic model, that the vast majority of the world is still completely unaware of let alone prepared for.  This is simultaneously both a little bit terrifying, and yet also feels a little bit like the internet must have in the early 90's. 

The difference is that in that case those folks had roughly 2-3 decades to respond.

This is (and will keep) moving SO ASTONISHINGLY FAST that, accounting for tech-inflation, we probably have more like 2-3 years at most, and possibly more like 2-3 months to adapt.

This thing is just so incomprehensively powerful.  The folks that learn how to, and who are privileged enough to be able to pay to use it, are going to just simply dominate those that don't. 

Society is Unlikely to Benefit Equally

The rapid rise in the cost of knowledge is not only alarming due to the rate of increase, but also because it is a significant departure from the previous model of mostly free to the world's access.  This is likely due, at least in part, to the high demand for this technology and the literal, logistical limitations of availability of the physical servers that support it.

As more and more people begin to use ChatGPT, the servers that host this technology are becoming strained, leading to an increase in the cost of access.  This trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as demand for AI technologies continues to grow and the infrastructure struggles to keep up.

Unfortunately, the increasing cost of knowledge is likely already creating a divide between those who can afford to pay for access to this knowledge, and those who cannot. As the cost continues to rise, this divide is likely to become more pronounced, with potentially far-reaching implications for the economy and society as a whole.

The AI industry is already moving at an extraordinary pace, and this new knowledge acquisition cost only adds to the challenges and opportunities that it presents.

Imagine A $5K GPTesla!

On the positive side of things, as stated above, ChatGPT is likely to reduce the cost of software development over the coming months, and years, by one or more orders of magnitude.  It would be a little bit like if car's suddenly got 10x cheaper. 

Imagine waking up tomorrow, and finding that there's a new company called GPTesla with a car that has a 1000 mile range, charges from a wall socket in 30 seconds and costs $5K rather than $50k. 

Like, literally, from one day to the next.  As a software developer, that's the world I seem to find myself in today.  😲🤔😅😀

Conclusion

The rapidly increasing cost of knowledge is a worrying trend that has the potential to create a divide between those who can afford to access knowledge and those who cannot.

It is important that we are all aware of this. As the use of AI technology continues to grow, it will be interesting to see the impact on both the availability and cost of knowledge.

In the short term at least, I'm sorry, but this is going to be a metaphorical blood bath. 

I don't know how it is all going to play out, but **it is about to get real!